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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Just Forex Trades
(94987184)

Created by: Jay_ Jay_
Started: 06/2015
Forex
Last trade: 635 days ago
Trading style: Equity Momentum Short-term Reversal

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $225.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
Short-term Reversal
Category: Equity

Short-term Reversal

Exploits the tendency of stocks with strong gains and stocks with strong losses to reverse in a short-term time frame (up to one month).
-38.0%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(100.0%)
Max Drawdown
1059
Num Trades
91.6%
Win Trades
1.0 : 1
Profit Factor
58.5%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2015                                   +10.7%(1.5%)+13.9%+5.1%+12.8%(10%)+10.6%+46.5%
2016(6.1%)+13.7%(17.4%)+39.9%+16.7%+10.2%+4.7%+1.9%+0.8%(3.5%)+7.5%+2.9%+82.0%
2017+9.4%+3.6%+4.2%(13.5%)(5.1%)+3.8%+2.4%(2.5%)+2.1%+10.6%(5.3%)+17.5%+26.3%
2018(3.3%)+13.9%(5.8%)+15.7%+19.9%+0.4%+9.7%(2.4%)+1.5%+14.1%(2.8%)(16.5%)+45.2%
2019+35.4%+8.8%+9.9%(7.1%)+13.3%+6.4%+12.3%+17.3%+1.9%+10.8%+10.1%+5.4%+212.8%
2020+2.6%+5.0%(92.3%)+107.9%+6.9%+1.0%(14.7%)(8.9%)+25.0%+8.3%(23.9%)(16.1%)(87.4%)
2021(1.4%)(28.9%)(0.4%)(11.1%)(23.7%)+46.8%+32.4%(9.8%)+9.1%(39.5%)+80.8%(12.8%)(13.4%)
2022+25.4%(11.3%)(56.7%)(13.1%)(3.9%)(1.7%)+9.0%(44.4%)+2.6%(42.1%)+126.6%+100.6%(35.2%)
2023(7.6%)(22.8%)+58.3%(19.8%)(34.6%)(71.4%)+57.8%+8.7%(68.9%)+59.7%(26.5%)+197.7%(68.5%)
2024(88.8%)(94%)+556.5%                                                      (95.5%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 1,914 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 755 days ago.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
10/21/20 15:01 NZD/CHF NZD/CHF SHORT 20 0.60423 6/22/22 10:46 0.60872 222.39%
Trade id #131826467
Max drawdown($15,071)
Time2/25/21 0:00
Quant open20
Worst price0.67669
Drawdown as % of equity-222.39%
($936)
3/14/22 14:58 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 10 0.93787 3/31 10:22 0.92323 6.03%
Trade id #139777120
Max drawdown($881)
Time3/16/22 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price0.94601
Drawdown as % of equity-6.03%
$1,586
3/1/22 15:07 AUD/CAD AUD/CAD SHORT 10 0.92391 3/14 10:13 0.92398 9.99%
Trade id #139598507
Max drawdown($1,739)
Time3/7/22 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price0.94620
Drawdown as % of equity-9.99%
($5)
5/28/20 10:54 EUR/USD EUR/USD SHORT 12 1.10542 3/1/22 12:07 1.10981 60.59%
Trade id #129238953
Max drawdown($15,544)
Time1/6/21 0:00
Quant open12
Worst price1.23495
Drawdown as % of equity-60.59%
($527)
2/22/22 13:05 NZD/CAD NZD/CAD SHORT 10 0.85936 2/27 17:54 0.85414 1.82%
Trade id #139493572
Max drawdown($382)
Time2/23/22 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price0.86424
Drawdown as % of equity-1.82%
$410
11/10/21 15:29 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 10 0.91786 11/30 5:08 0.91796 12.94%
Trade id #138151804
Max drawdown($2,125)
Time11/24/21 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price0.93735
Drawdown as % of equity-12.94%
($11)
6/28/21 13:36 USD/CAD USD/CAD SHORT 8 1.23390 10/19 1:43 1.23385 14%
Trade id #136236076
Max drawdown($3,946)
Time8/20/21 0:00
Quant open8
Worst price1.29490
Drawdown as % of equity-14.00%
$3
6/10/21 9:30 AUD/NZD AUD/NZD SHORT 8 1.07670 6/28 13:37 1.07422 1.68%
Trade id #136001210
Max drawdown($256)
Time6/18/21 0:00
Quant open8
Worst price1.08127
Drawdown as % of equity-1.68%
$140
5/5/21 16:05 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 1 0.91300 5/9 17:39 0.90187 0.18%
Trade id #135470993
Max drawdown($16)
Time5/5/21 22:54
Quant open1
Worst price0.91453
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
$124
4/23/21 15:22 EUR/GBP EUR/GBP SHORT 10 0.87108 4/26 3:06 0.86900 0.7%
Trade id #135298602
Max drawdown($94)
Time4/23/21 16:05
Quant open10
Worst price0.87176
Drawdown as % of equity-0.70%
$290
4/22/21 14:58 CAD/CHF CAD/CHF SHORT 8 0.73479 4/23 5:32 0.73271 0.29%
Trade id #135277260
Max drawdown($38)
Time4/23/21 0:00
Quant open8
Worst price0.73523
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
$182
11/25/20 14:01 NZD/USD NZD/USD SHORT 12 0.70110 3/23/21 10:29 0.70234 80.31%
Trade id #132462471
Max drawdown($5,442)
Time2/25/21 0:00
Quant open12
Worst price0.74645
Drawdown as % of equity-80.31%
($149)
1/22/21 12:17 EUR/AUD EUR/AUD SHORT 10 1.57645 1/24 21:51 1.57461 0.6%
Trade id #133541726
Max drawdown($169)
Time1/24/21 17:59
Quant open10
Worst price1.57864
Drawdown as % of equity-0.60%
$142
1/14/21 9:36 CAD/CHF CAD/CHF SHORT 10 0.70145 1/15 10:07 0.69796 0.76%
Trade id #133373362
Max drawdown($201)
Time1/14/21 10:34
Quant open10
Worst price0.70325
Drawdown as % of equity-0.76%
$393
1/13/21 9:54 USD/CAD USD/CAD SHORT 10 1.27369 1/13 12:54 1.26906 0.28%
Trade id #133349254
Max drawdown($75)
Time1/13/21 10:02
Quant open10
Worst price1.27465
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
$365
1/11/21 9:53 USD/CHF USD/CHF SHORT 10 0.89119 1/12 13:29 0.88800 0.34%
Trade id #133304154
Max drawdown($92)
Time1/11/21 9:58
Quant open10
Worst price0.89201
Drawdown as % of equity-0.34%
$359
12/30/20 13:28 AUD/CAD AUD/CAD SHORT 10 0.98003 1/4/21 0:16 0.97801 1.76%
Trade id #133096108
Max drawdown($459)
Time12/31/20 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price0.98587
Drawdown as % of equity-1.76%
$159
12/29/20 14:47 CHF/JPY CHF/JPY SHORT 10 117.097 12/30 10:07 116.673 0.54%
Trade id #133076849
Max drawdown($152)
Time12/29/20 20:38
Quant open10
Worst price117.254
Drawdown as % of equity-0.54%
$412
12/29/20 9:37 USD/JPY USD/JPY LONG 22 103.590 12/29 9:39 103.578 0.09%
Trade id #133067181
Max drawdown($26)
Time12/29/20 9:39
Quant open22
Worst price103.578
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
($26)
12/28/20 14:00 USD/JPY USD/JPY SHORT 10 103.816 12/29 9:37 103.584 0.18%
Trade id #133051520
Max drawdown($54)
Time12/28/20 14:35
Quant open10
Worst price103.872
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
$224
12/24/20 12:07 CAD/CHF CAD/CHF SHORT 10 0.69480 12/27 17:30 0.69263 0.4%
Trade id #133009451
Max drawdown($119)
Time12/24/20 12:59
Quant open10
Worst price0.69586
Drawdown as % of equity-0.40%
$243
12/21/20 11:48 EUR/CAD EUR/CAD SHORT 10 1.56993 12/22 14:47 1.56964 2.13%
Trade id #132942865
Max drawdown($667)
Time12/22/20 9:14
Quant open10
Worst price1.57854
Drawdown as % of equity-2.13%
$23
12/8/20 13:49 CHF/JPY CHF/JPY SHORT 12 117.141 12/11 8:57 116.940 2.09%
Trade id #132701338
Max drawdown($714)
Time12/10/20 0:00
Quant open12
Worst price117.760
Drawdown as % of equity-2.09%
$232
11/23/20 9:51 GBP/AUD GBP/AUD SHORT 10 1.82818 11/23 19:26 1.82522 0.67%
Trade id #132400610
Max drawdown($261)
Time11/23/20 10:30
Quant open10
Worst price1.83175
Drawdown as % of equity-0.67%
$216
11/20/20 12:14 AUD/CHF AUD/CHF SHORT 12 0.66633 11/23 9:14 0.66434 0.49%
Trade id #132375354
Max drawdown($186)
Time11/23/20 4:34
Quant open12
Worst price0.66775
Drawdown as % of equity-0.49%
$263
11/17/20 11:19 GBP/CAD GBP/CAD SHORT 12 1.73582 11/17 13:29 1.73378 0.25%
Trade id #132301807
Max drawdown($98)
Time11/17/20 12:05
Quant open12
Worst price1.73690
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
$187
11/13/20 12:55 AUD/CAD AUD/CAD SHORT 12 0.95563 11/16 8:18 0.95376 0.25%
Trade id #132251580
Max drawdown($97)
Time11/16/20 6:56
Quant open12
Worst price0.95669
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
$171
10/28/20 12:18 GBP/CAD GBP/CAD SHORT 12 1.72839 10/29 10:05 1.72663 1.25%
Trade id #131949036
Max drawdown($603)
Time10/29/20 5:35
Quant open12
Worst price1.73509
Drawdown as % of equity-1.25%
$158
10/2/20 11:52 CHF/JPY CHF/JPY SHORT 14 114.493 10/28 5:56 114.309 6.15%
Trade id #131488409
Max drawdown($2,813)
Time10/20/20 0:00
Quant open14
Worst price116.589
Drawdown as % of equity-6.15%
$247
10/26/20 14:05 USD/CAD USD/CAD SHORT 14 1.32101 10/26 22:10 1.31917 0.1%
Trade id #131902484
Max drawdown($44)
Time10/26/20 16:56
Quant open14
Worst price1.32143
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
$195

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    6/12/2015
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $20,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    3200.35
  • Age
    107 months ago
  • What it trades
    Forex
  • # Trades
    1059
  • # Profitable
    970
  • % Profitable
    91.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    13.1 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    100%
  • drawdown period
    June 30, 2015 - March 18, 2020
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -38.0%
  • Avg win
    $442.14
  • Avg loss
    $4,945
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $80,657
  • Margin Used
    $9,816
  • Buying Power
    ($1,098)
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    0.97:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.39
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.07
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.112
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -242.85%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.07700
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    145.90%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -38.0%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    127039.00%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.46%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.380%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    1.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -9.0%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    100.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    600
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $4,945
  • Avg Win
    $442
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $440,147.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    106
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $428,872.000
  • # Winners
    970
  • Num Months Winners
    62
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    89
  • % Winners
    91.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    18914.20
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    315.24
  • Avg Trade Length
    13.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    634
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    18.11
  • Daily leverage (max)
    1101.33
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.00
  • Beta
    0.16
  • Treynor Index
    0.00
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.02
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    97.67
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    99.62
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    14.39
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.14
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -87.002
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.07
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    2.186
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -2.035
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.011
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.41503
  • SD
    0.98058
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.42325
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.41959
  • df
    87.00000
  • t
    1.14617
  • p
    0.12743
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.30444
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.14855
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.30685
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.14604
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.76187
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.15040
  • Upside part of mean
    1.17145
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.75642
  • Upside SD
    0.81744
  • Downside SD
    0.54476
  • N nonnegative terms
    55.00000
  • N negative terms
    33.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    88.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.09851
  • Mean of criterion
    0.41503
  • SD of predictor
    0.16803
  • SD of criterion
    0.98058
  • Covariance
    0.00989
  • r
    0.06004
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.35038
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.38052
  • Mean Square Error
    0.96922
  • DF error
    86.00000
  • t(b)
    0.55779
  • p(b)
    0.28922
  • t(a)
    1.03183
  • p(a)
    0.15252
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.89837
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.59913
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.35259
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.11362
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.18452
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.38052
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.09405
  • SD
    1.13795
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.08265
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.08194
  • df
    87.00000
  • t
    -0.22382
  • p
    0.58829
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.80629
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.64145
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.80580
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.64193
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.09552
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.98668
  • Upside part of mean
    0.97159
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.06564
  • Upside SD
    0.55795
  • Downside SD
    0.98470
  • N nonnegative terms
    55.00000
  • N negative terms
    33.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    88.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08396
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.09405
  • SD of predictor
    0.16870
  • SD of criterion
    1.13795
  • Covariance
    0.03626
  • r
    0.18887
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.27405
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.20103
  • Mean Square Error
    1.26325
  • DF error
    86.00000
  • t(b)
    1.78365
  • p(b)
    0.03900
  • t(a)
    -0.47937
  • p(a)
    0.68356
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.14592
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.69402
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.03468
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.63262
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.07382
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.20103
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.42199
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.49257
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.11687
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.25922
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    88.00000
  • Minimum
    0.11550
  • Quartile 1
    0.94112
  • Median
    1.04306
  • Quartile 3
    1.13218
  • Maximum
    2.76794
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.76768
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99683
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.07845
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.30469
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.19106
  • Number outliers low
    5.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05682
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.42363
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03409
  • Mean of outliers high
    2.02597
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.48378
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.21202
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.48175
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.51283
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.20132
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.46852
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    14.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00930
  • Quartile 1
    0.04514
  • Median
    0.06004
  • Quartile 3
    0.13087
  • Maximum
    0.97011
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.02437
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.05187
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.09582
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.37364
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08573
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.07143
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.97011
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.70400
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.44384
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    1.58441
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.84470
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.50826
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.05241
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.06401
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.06598
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.17131
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.12994
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.22753
  • SD
    0.81693
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.27852
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.27841
  • df
    1924.00000
  • t
    0.75496
  • p
    0.49140
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.44464
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.00162
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.44472
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.00154
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.41169
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.98288
  • Upside part of mean
    3.30667
  • Downside part of mean
    -3.07914
  • Upside SD
    0.60147
  • Downside SD
    0.55269
  • N nonnegative terms
    996.00000
  • N negative terms
    929.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1925.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.11366
  • Mean of criterion
    0.22753
  • SD of predictor
    0.20178
  • SD of criterion
    0.81693
  • Covariance
    -0.01758
  • r
    -0.10663
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.43170
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.27700
  • Mean Square Error
    0.66014
  • DF error
    1923.00000
  • t(b)
    -4.70272
  • p(b)
    0.56775
  • t(a)
    0.92222
  • p(a)
    0.48662
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.61173
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.25166
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.31162
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.86482
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.52707
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.27660
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.14408
  • SD
    0.91269
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.15787
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.15781
  • df
    1924.00000
  • t
    -0.42791
  • p
    0.50488
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.88096
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.56522
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.88090
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.56529
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.19406
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.24783
  • Upside part of mean
    3.15386
  • Downside part of mean
    -3.29794
  • Upside SD
    0.53047
  • Downside SD
    0.74246
  • N nonnegative terms
    996.00000
  • N negative terms
    929.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1925.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.09314
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.14408
  • SD of predictor
    0.20285
  • SD of criterion
    0.91269
  • Covariance
    -0.01518
  • r
    -0.08197
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.36879
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.10973
  • Mean Square Error
    0.82783
  • DF error
    1923.00000
  • t(b)
    -3.60656
  • p(b)
    0.55212
  • t(a)
    -0.32678
  • p(a)
    0.50474
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.56934
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.16825
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.76831
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.54884
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.39069
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.10973
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.08908
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.11009
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02569
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.05704
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    1925.00000
  • Minimum
    0.23944
  • Quartile 1
    0.98832
  • Median
    1.00063
  • Quartile 3
    1.01311
  • Maximum
    1.61601
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.95827
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99501
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00623
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.04448
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02479
  • Number outliers low
    105.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05455
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.89456
  • Number of outliers high
    100.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05195
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.11679
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.56637
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04069
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.10404
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.45897
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.03520
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.07337
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    102.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00010
  • Quartile 1
    0.00658
  • Median
    0.01639
  • Quartile 3
    0.03842
  • Maximum
    0.98114
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00325
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01097
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02547
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.14394
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03184
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    17.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.18829
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.12466
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.11129
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.16872
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.08720
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.12843
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.19346
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.07814
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.10968
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.11179
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.76202
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.99625
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.54085
  • SD
    1.97330
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.27408
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.27250
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.19381
  • p
    0.50850
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.04561
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.49841
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.04450
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.49951
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.45913
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.06793
  • Upside part of mean
    10.68190
  • Downside part of mean
    -11.22280
  • Upside SD
    1.57406
  • Downside SD
    1.17799
  • N nonnegative terms
    52.00000
  • N negative terms
    79.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.50501
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.54085
  • SD of predictor
    0.34563
  • SD of criterion
    1.97330
  • Covariance
    -0.24537
  • r
    -0.35975
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -2.05393
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.49641
  • Mean Square Error
    3.41624
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -4.37923
  • p(b)
    0.72399
  • t(a)
    0.18914
  • p(a)
    0.48940
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.98189
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.12597
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -4.69645
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    5.68927
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.26332
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.49641
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -2.33724
  • SD
    1.87566
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.24609
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.23889
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.88112
  • p
    0.53853
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -4.01974
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.53215
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.01478
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.53700
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -1.79508
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.43159
  • Upside part of mean
    9.67614
  • Downside part of mean
    -12.01340
  • Upside SD
    1.34789
  • Downside SD
    1.30203
  • N nonnegative terms
    52.00000
  • N negative terms
    79.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.44461
  • Mean of criterion
    -2.33724
  • SD of predictor
    0.34859
  • SD of criterion
    1.87566
  • Covariance
    -0.23239
  • r
    -0.35542
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -1.91239
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -1.48697
  • Mean Square Error
    3.09749
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -4.31881
  • p(b)
    0.72141
  • t(a)
    -0.59556
  • p(a)
    0.53332
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.08900
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.78849
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.03629
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -6.42684
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    3.45291
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.22216
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -1.48697
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.18088
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.21889
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.11089
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.18779
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.67280
  • Quartile 1
    0.93229
  • Median
    0.98412
  • Quartile 3
    1.05668
  • Maximum
    1.56661
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.87584
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.95819
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00810
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.15034
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.12439
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01527
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.70294
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02290
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.49595
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.18485
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.13416
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.19260
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.31358
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.12113
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.18161
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    5.00000
  • Minimum
    0.05090
  • Quartile 1
    0.06335
  • Median
    0.15536
  • Quartile 3
    0.62928
  • Maximum
    0.78497
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.05713
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.15536
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.62928
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.78497
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.56593
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -585932000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    1723
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -1.36968
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.90067
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.14741
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.14741
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -4.11476

Strategy Description

Our approach is based upon 3 principles
1)Exhaustive momentum is not sustainable.
2)Currencies are range bound.
3)Prices fall faster than they rise.

As such, we are a momentum based, Short only and we do not use initial stops, we therefore are non-correlated to most other programs.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2015-06-12
Suggested Minimum Capital
$10,000
# Trades
1059
# Profitable
970
% Profitable
91.6%
Correlation S&P500
0.077
Sharpe Ratio
0.39
Sortino Ratio
1.07
Beta
0.16
Alpha
0.00
Leverage
18.11 Average
1101.33 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.